Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 0.019146 0.021694 0.024458 0.027681 0.031337 0.035357 0.040114
2025-07-27 0.015405 0.018967 0.023168 0.028489 0.035059 0.042915 0.053038
2025-08-03 0.012933 0.016853 0.021743 0.028301 0.036881 0.047749 0.062601
2025-08-10 0.011260 0.015368 0.020735 0.028276 0.038625 0.052368 0.072078
2025-08-17 0.009820 0.013949 0.019563 0.027775 0.039519 0.055769 0.080073
2025-08-24 0.008931 0.013148 0.019092 0.028107 0.041486 0.060698 0.090541
2025-08-31 0.008047 0.012238 0.018342 0.027908 0.042594 0.064405 0.099479
2025-09-07 0.007520 0.011789 0.018196 0.028552 0.044960 0.070108 0.111880
2025-09-14 0.006698 0.010796 0.017122 0.027638 0.044794 0.071865 0.118197
2025-09-21 0.006111 0.010113 0.016455 0.027285 0.045445 0.074902 0.126772
2025-09-28 0.005501 0.009331 0.015553 0.026449 0.045202 0.076422 0.132890
2025-10-05 0.005319 0.009243 0.015773 0.027496 0.048191 0.083532 0.149159
2025-10-12 0.005072 0.009029 0.015776 0.028189 0.050667 0.090044 0.165122
2025-10-19 0.004868 0.008873 0.015863 0.029038 0.053497 0.097427 0.183376
2025-10-26 0.004523 0.008429 0.015401 0.028845 0.054396 0.101386 0.195602
2025-11-02 0.004237 0.008067 0.015052 0.028820 0.055592 0.105964 0.209389
2025-11-09 0.003913 0.007604 0.014476 0.028309 0.055801 0.108676 0.219738
2025-11-16 0.003726 0.007389 0.014347 0.028647 0.057686 0.114754 0.237350
2025-11-23 0.003490 0.007056 0.013963 0.028445 0.058462 0.118694 0.250914
2025-11-30 0.003371 0.006946 0.014005 0.029101 0.061039 0.126457 0.273174
2025-12-07 0.003091 0.006485 0.013307 0.028170 0.060223 0.127158 0.280337
2025-12-14 0.002893 0.006178 0.012899 0.027809 0.060579 0.130329 0.293156
2025-12-21 0.002665 0.005787 0.012286 0.026957 0.059795 0.130983 0.300386